Israel Votes in High-Stakes Election as Netanyahu Fights for Political Survival

JERUSALEM — Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday in the first parliamentary election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, a vote that will decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, survives in office or is pushed out by a public still reckoning with the deadliest day in the country's history.

Polling stations open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. local time, when television channels will publish the first exit polls. All 120 Knesset seats are at stake, and under Israel's proportional system no single party has ever won a majority on its own. What voters decide on Tuesday will set off weeks of coalition bargaining — or, if no government can be formed, the prospect of yet another election.

Netanyahu, who has spent 19 years in office across several terms, is campaigning as a wartime leader. His challengers frame the election as a verdict on accountability for October 7 and the wars that followed.

A Vote Three Years in the Making

The campaign has been fought in the shadow of October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel and took 251 hostage, according to Israeli figures. The offensive that followed flattened much of Gaza; health authorities in Gaza say Israeli attacks have killed about 74,000 people. Israel also struck Hezbollah in Lebanon and fought two rounds of open war with Iran, including a 12-day campaign against Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and this year's joint campaign with the United States.

For many of Netanyahu's opponents, the ballot is a verdict on that record. Mali Hajaj, an Education Ministry employee who supports the opposition, told reporters that a national inquiry into October 7 is where the country's healing would begin. Backers of the prime minister reject the blame outright. Nof Gabay, an 18-year-old Likud supporter, said Netanyahu managed the war in the best possible way.

Security has stayed at the top of the agenda into election week. Israel closed its West Bank crossings for election day, and forces stepped up operations around Hebron after the attack near Hebron days before the vote, which had already prompted Netanyahu to order a West Bank closure.

The Final Polls Point to Deadlock

The final surveys published by Israel's three main television broadcasters all tell the same story: neither camp reaches the 61 seats needed to govern. Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc stands at 50 seats in each of the Channel 12, Channel 13 and Kan polls, while the opposition bloc is projected at 52 to 56 seats and Arab-led parties at a combined 14 to 16.

Individually, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party holds a narrow lead, projected at 22 to 23 seats against 19 to 21 for Netanyahu's Likud. The B'Yachad alliance of former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is projected third, at 14 or 15 seats. Parties must clear a 3.25 percent national threshold to enter the Knesset, and several small lists sit just above or below that line — so a fraction of a percent could move seats between the blocs.

Eisenkot and the Opposition's Case

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff and a security hawk with backers on the right and in the centre, has built his campaign on accountability and equal burden-sharing. He has pressed for a national inquiry into October 7, for fairer military service — pointed while many ultra-Orthodox men remain exempt — and for action on the cost of living and education.

On Iran, Eisenkot has said Israel's next government must prevent Tehran from acquiring a military nuclear capability, either by force or through an arrangement such as a United States-backed diplomatic solution. Like nearly all Jewish-led parties in Israel, he opposes the two-state solution that underpinned decades of peace negotiations, but he has criticised settler violence in the West Bank, which has surged since 2023 and strained Israel's ties with Western states.

Eisenkot has also drawn a sharp line against Netanyahu's far-right partners. He opposes forming a government with Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and he has ruled out partnering with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values — a position that could complicate his own path to 61 seats even if his bloc finishes first. Analysts nonetheless see a scenario in which Arab parties prop up a minority government he leads, to ensure Netanyahu leaves office.

Netanyahu's Counterattack

Netanyahu has answered with the argument that has carried him through past crises: that only he can manage Israel's wars and its alliance with Washington. He has campaigned heavily on his relationship with President Donald Trump, who has endorsed him and joined Israel in waging war on Iran. On Sunday, Netanyahu said Trump was prepared to act again to finally remove the Iranian threat — but only if Netanyahu remained in power.

Eisenkot has accused Netanyahu of relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats, and said he was confident Trump would work in full cooperation with any leader chosen by the people. In the campaign's final days Netanyahu urged voters to abandon small parties in his own bloc that are hovering near the electoral threshold and vote Likud instead, acknowledging the race could come down to half a seat.

The prime minister may again depend on far-right leaders Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to govern. Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries that accuse them of inciting violence against Palestinians, while Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party has gained ground, particularly among younger voters, and is now forecast to win eight or more seats on its own. Netanyahu is also fighting corruption charges he denies in a long-running criminal trial, and in some traditional Likud strongholds disenchanted voters have campaigned door to door against him.

Washington's shadow falls across the campaign in another way: the United States and Israel have drawn up extensive post-midterm strike plans for Iran, according to reports, and Tehran has warned another Israeli attack would trigger what it calls an apocalyptic war.

What Happens After the Polls Close

Exit polls at 10 p.m. will give the first indication of the outcome, but the count will take time. The final tally is expected by October 30, and official results are published on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party leaders and tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government, who will have up to 42 days to assemble a coalition.

If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can build a majority, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election is held next year. No single party has ever won an outright Knesset majority, and coalition negotiations routinely take weeks, with small parties acting as kingmakers. If the nominee fails, others get a chance; if no government emerges at all, a fresh election follows.

The stakes reach beyond Israel's borders. The next government will decide how Israel handles Gaza's aftermath, the Iranian nuclear question, and relations with Washington and the Arab states. Across the Middle East, capitals will be watching Tuesday night's exit polls for the first sign of whether the year's most consequential election produces a new leader — or keeps the old one in place.