Tuberculosis in Numbers: Deaths Down 35% Since 2015, but the 2030 Goal Is Slipping Away

Executive Summary

The World Health Organization released its Global Tuberculosis Report 2026 on 12 November, and the numbers tell two stories at once. An estimated 10.6 million people developed tuberculosis in 2025 and 1.13 million died from it. Deaths have fallen 35% since 2015, finally reaching a milestone the WHO's End TB Strategy had set for 2020. Yet new infections are falling far too slowly, and the money to close the gap is not arriving.

Tuberculosis remains the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, and the thirteenth cause of death overall. The report, built on data from 187 countries covering more than 99% of the world's population, shows the burden concentrated in 30 high-burden countries that account for 88% of cases. India alone accounts for about a quarter. This study measures the progress, the gaps in diagnosis and treatment, and the funding shortfall that now decides whether the 2030 targets stay in reach.

Methodology

This study rests on the WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2026, released 12 November 2026, cross-checked against the WHO's own summary of the findings and reporting of the release in Indian and international health outlets. Country figures are taken from the report's estimates and from India's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, which published its own summary of the national numbers on the same day. Funding figures come from the WHO's financing analysis for low- and middle-income countries.

The WHO warns that its incidence and mortality figures rely heavily on statistical modelling, national prevalence surveys and vital registration, because millions of cases go unreported. Direct comparisons with earlier editions are not appropriate, the WHO says, because each report revises the time series. Where this study quotes a change since 2015, it uses the 2026 report's own published time series, not figures carried over from earlier editions.

Empirical Findings

The global burden eased only slightly in 2025. An estimated 10.6 million people developed TB, down 0.7% from 2024, including 5.7 million men, 3.7 million women and 1.2 million children. The incidence rate fell to 129 cases per 100,000 people, down from 131 in 2024. Since 2015, incidence has fallen just 14%, against the End TB Strategy's milestone of a 50% reduction by 2025. The 2030 target, an 80% cut in incidence, is now far out of reach on the current trajectory.

Deaths fell faster than cases. An estimated 1.13 million people died from TB in 2025, about 1 million without HIV and around 137,000 living with HIV. That is a 4% fall from 1.18 million in 2024 and a 35% fall from 1.74 million in 2015, finally meeting the first mortality milestone of the End TB Strategy, five years late. Since 2000, timely diagnosis and treatment have saved an estimated 86 million lives, the WHO says.

The diagnosis gap is the report's starkest finding. Health systems diagnosed and reported 8.4 million people with TB in 2025, or 79% of those estimated to have developed the disease, leaving about 2.2 million people undiagnosed or unreported. Only 59% of patients were tested with rapid diagnostics, against a target of 100% by 2027. The ten countries with the largest detection gaps include Nigeria, where incidence estimates still rest largely on a 2012 prevalence survey.

Drug-resistant TB is the most dangerous gap. An estimated 370,000 people developed rifampicin-resistant TB in 2025, yet only 155,333 received treatment, about 42% of the estimated cases. Among those treated, 42% received the shorter six-month regimens, up from 18% in 2024. On prevention, 5.2 million people at high risk received preventive treatment in 2025, and 12 TB vaccines were in active clinical development as of August 2026, three of them in Phase 3 trials.

The money is moving in the wrong direction. Domestic funding rose 14% to $5.63 billion and now accounts for 86% of all TB funding in low- and middle-income countries. But international donor funding fell 14% to $940 million, down from $1.1 billion. Total funding available reached about $6.6 billion, just 30% of the $22 billion annual target the world set for itself. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called the continued fall in cases and deaths encouraging, particularly given the financial pressures on health systems.

The burden is sharply uneven. The 30 high-burden countries account for 88% of cases, led by India at about 25%, Indonesia at 10%, the Philippines at 6.8%, China at 6.5% and Pakistan at 6.4%. Regionally, incidence fell 42% in Europe and 30% in Africa since 2015, but rose 13% in the Americas, the fifth consecutive year of increase. India recorded 25.3 lakh cases and 2.63 lakh deaths in 2025, with mortality down 38% since 2015, from 28 to 18 deaths per lakh people, and a 94% treatment success rate.

Outlook

The arithmetic of 2030 is unforgiving. The End TB Strategy demands a 90% cut in deaths and an 80% cut in incidence by 2030, from 2015 levels. Deaths are 35% lower and incidence 14% lower with five years left. At the current pace, neither target will be met. Closing the 2.2 million-person diagnosis gap and the drug-resistant treatment gap matters more than any single new tool, because the people the system never finds are the people who keep transmitting the disease.

The funding decision is the hinge. Governments raised domestic TB spending by 14% while international donors cut theirs by the same share, and the shortfall of more than $15 billion against the $22 billion target falls on the countries least able to carry it. India shows what commitment can do: 96% of its TB programme is funded from its budget, with more than 25 crore people screened. The open question is whether the rest of the world follows, or whether the next report records a stall.