South Africa's Municipal Vote: The ANC's Slide to One-Third

Executive Summary

JOHANNESBURG — South Africa's governing African National Congress has fallen to about one-third of the municipal vote in early returns from the November 4 local elections, according to figures from the Electoral Commission. With roughly a fifth of ballots counted by Thursday morning, the ANC held about 32 percent, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance on about 31 percent. Independent projections put the ANC's final share at roughly 31 to 32 percent.

If confirmed when final results are declared on Sunday, the result would extend a two-decade slide from close to 70 percent of the national vote in 2004 to below a third at local level. It would also leave no party able to govern most big cities alone, forcing coalition talks within two weeks of the declaration. Turnout, meanwhile, jumped to an estimated 54.5 percent, the strongest municipal showing since 2016.

Methodology

This study rests on figures published by the Electoral Commission of South Africa and reported by Reuters, the public broadcaster SABC and the TimesLIVE live results service, cross-checked against the Commission's own turnout briefings. Every figure is labelled as counted, projected or historical, and all counts are preliminary: at the time of writing, only about a quarter of ballots had been tallied, and early returns skew toward smaller rural districts.

Projections come from two independent models: the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, which bases its estimate on declared voting districts, and the SABC's early projection. Historical comparisons use the Commission's certified 2021 municipal results and the 2024 national election outcome. The method mirrors our earlier data study of record early voting in the United States, which separated counted ballots from projections before drawing conclusions.

Empirical Findings

With about 12 percent of votes counted by 04:24 GMT on November 5, the Commission's dashboard showed the ANC on about 32 percent and the DA on 31 percent, according to Reuters. By the time roughly a fifth of districts had reported, the ANC had 1.34 million votes to the DA's 1.27 million, with Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party third on about 240,000 votes. The proportional ballot told the same story: ANC 31.5 percent, DA 30.5 percent, MKP 5.6 percent.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, working from 11.5 percent of voting districts, projected a final ANC share of about 32 percent and a DA share of 26 percent. A later CSIR reading, with a quarter of ballots counted, put the ANC at 31.5 percent, the DA at 25.5 percent and MKP third on roughly 9 percent. The SABC's early projection agreed on the direction, forecasting the ANC down from more than 40 percent to 31 percent and the DA up from 21 percent to 26 percent.

About 15.9 million of South Africa's 29.2 million registered voters cast ballots, an estimated turnout of 54.5 percent, the Commission said on Thursday. That is up sharply from 45.8 percent in 2021, when only 12 million of 26.2 million registered voters turned out. By 10 a.m. on polling day, 3.5 million people had already voted, and by 5 p.m. the figure had passed 12 million, with Gauteng recording the highest provincial turnout.

The 2021 municipal elections gave the ANC 45.59 percent of the vote and 4,548 council seats, against 21.66 percent and 1,497 seats for the DA and 10.32 percent for the Economic Freedom Fighters. In 2016 the ANC still held about 54 percent; in the 2006 municipal elections it took about 65 percent, and in the 2004 national election close to 70 percent. The 2024 national vote, at 40.18 percent, forced the party into a Government of National Unity with the DA and others.

The pattern echoes the voter revolt measured in our study of the 2026 United States midterm verdict, where an incumbent party was punished at the ballot box after losing control of the cost-of-living argument. In South Africa the grievance is more basic: voters cited high crime, corruption scandals and failing water and electricity services as the reasons for the ruling party's losses.

The sharpest rebukes came in the cities. In Gauteng, with a tenth of votes counted, the DA led on 39.26 percent against 18.55 percent for the ANC, with ActionSA third on 15.17 percent. In the Western Cape the DA led on 59.09 percent, with the Patriotic Alliance on 10.33 percent and the ANC on only 10.16 percent. In Cape Town the DA was projected to hold the metro it has governed for 20 years, but with just over 50 percent, down from 58.2 percent in 2021.

No contest carries more electricity than eThekwini, the Durban metro, where the ANC won 42.02 percent in 2021 ahead of the DA on 26.62 percent. Pre-election surveys put Zuma's MKP at between 43 and 55 percent there, and the party was forecast to place third nationally on roughly 9 percent, well below some opinion polls but enough to make it a kingmaker. Johannesburg, meanwhile, was expected to produce no clear winner, leaving coalition talks to decide its government.

Outlook

Final results are expected on Sunday, and parties will then have two weeks to negotiate coalitions in hung councils. The early numbers suggest the ANC will keep its rural strongholds — it led in the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, the Free State, the North West and the Northern Cape — while losing ground in every major city. That split points to a municipal map governed almost entirely by negotiation rather than by majorities.

Three questions will decide the aftermath. First, whether the ANC's final share settles near 31 percent or drifts lower as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal report. Second, whether the DA can convert its urban gains into mayoral chains in Johannesburg and eThekwini. Third, whether a turnout surge driven by frustration becomes a durable habit or a one-off protest. The answers will shape not only local government but the road to the national election due by August 2029. News Plus Globe's world news desk will track the final declaration and the coalition talks that follow.