Trump's Republicans Make Final Push as Polls Point to Democratic Wave on Eve of Midterms

WASHINGTON — Republicans made a final push on Sunday to prevent a predicted thumping in the United States midterm elections, with President Donald Trump campaigning in states his party would normally expect to win without him, a day before voters decide control of Congress.

Polls show Democrats are all but certain to take the House in Tuesday's vote, and, against earlier expectations, have a real shot at the Senate. A Democratic win in either chamber would be the first significant political check on Trump since he returned to office in 2025.

Trump headlined the closing Republican effort with rallies in Iowa and Kansas, telling supporters in Iowa: "We're going to win." He painted Democrats as "extreme and dangerous radicals" who would, in his words, steal wealth and open the borders to migrants who would "ransack, rape and plunder."

A final push in Republican territory

The choice of venues told its own story. Iowa and Kansas are states where Republicans would ordinarily not need a presidential visit in the final days of a campaign, and the events, in Dubuque and Salina, were first cancelled and later restored. Trump used them to argue that Democrats would turn the country communist, and he floated the promise of $5,000 payments to everyone in the country if his party wins.

"I feel good," he told reporters late on Saturday at his Florida golf club. "The country has never done better." Voters appear less convinced. A national poll released on Sunday found 60 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance, with high prices, worsened by the eight-month war against Iran, a particular source of frustration. Even so, his rallies may energise a loyal base that votes in large numbers on Election Day itself.

Polls point to a Democratic House

Democrats lead the national congressional ballot by about eight points in a polling average, 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, and one recent survey put the margin at 10 points. Forecasters see the House as all but lost for Republicans: one prominent model updated on October 30 calls Democrats overwhelming favourites to take it, and a mid-October ratings assessment projected Democrats could reach 237 seats on a good night, with 18 races rated toss-ups.

Democrats are still nervous after a decade in which Trump has defied political expectations. "Nauseously optimistic," Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock told CNN, describing the mood inside his party.

The stakes of a House flip are large. A Democratic majority would control the budget and take over committees expected to investigate allegations of widespread corruption and Trump's ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and it could block much of Trump's legislative agenda for his final two years in office.

The Senate is the open question

The Senate is the biggest open question of Tuesday's vote. Republicans hold a slim majority, and only about a third of the chamber's 100 seats are on the ballot. Few of those races were seen as favourable to Democrats at the outset, but strong Democratic challenges in conservative states such as Texas and Kansas have changed the picture.

One ratings assessment found each party leading in 47 seats, with six toss-ups likely to decide control, while another forecast updated on October 30 has Democrats clearly favoured for the chamber. In Kansas, a poll released on Friday showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent, though a tighter survey had the race closer. If Hamilton wins, he would be the first Kansas Democrat elected to the Senate in 94 years.

A Democratic Senate could block Trump's judicial appointments, including to the Supreme Court. A separate strand of midterm polling analysis reached the same conclusion: the House looked likely to flip, while the Senate would be decided by a handful of close contests.

Michigan rift deepens on the final weekend

Concerns deepened on Sunday after an ugly party rift emerged in Michigan, a key battleground where Democratic Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers against Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens, who lost the Michigan Democrats' Senate primary to El-Sayed in a bitterly contested race, said: "I don't belong in Abdul's campaign."

The fallout was swift. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi condemned Stevens on social media, saying she had "dangerously betrayed Michigan families" and that El-Sayed "must win." House Speaker Mike Johnson, travelling with Trump in Iowa, said he had reached out to Stevens to praise her decision, calling it "heroic" and important for the country. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said Stevens "is not a current member of the Michigan Democratic Party, nor will she be in the future," and reports said her chief of staff had resigned.

El-Sayed brushed off the defection, telling reporters he did not think about Stevens. Trump, en route to a rally in Iowa, said he would reach out to Stevens to thank her. The episode is covered in our web story on the Stevens endorsement.

Record early vote and the fight over the count

Tuesday is Election Day, but voting is already well advanced. More than 50 million people have already cast ballots, a record for a midterm election, with reports putting the total at 53 to 54 million by the final weekend. Texas alone had recorded 6.3 million early votes, up from 4.2 million at the same point in 2022. An analysis of record early voting found nearly 10 million more ballots cast by the end of last week than at the same point in 2022, and in states that report party data, Democrats are voting early at higher rates than Republicans, though analysts caution that early totals do not show how people voted.

The campaign has been costly and bitter. About $11 billion has been spent on advertising, much of it from mega-donors, and Elon Musk, a close Trump ally who led the so-called DOGE effort, has given nearly half a billion dollars to help elect Republicans.

Hanging over everything is concern that Republicans may not accept a loss, which could revive the constitutional crisis that followed Trump's attempt to overturn his 2020 defeat. Over the weekend, the White House undermined confidence in the count by rebutting a post that explained it is normal for a candidate to lead early in complex districts and fall behind once all ballots are tallied. "No it isn't," the official presidential account on X replied.

A federal judge on Sunday tossed out an unusual attempt by Trump's administration to hold up a potential Democratic Senate victory in Alaska. The lawsuit contended that if Democrat Mary Peltola defeats Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, the result should not be certified because a third, minor candidate also named Dan Sullivan was allegedly recruited to siphon off votes. California Governor Gavin Newsom, meanwhile, urged the state's federal chief district judges to scrutinise any attempt to seize California election materials before results are certified.

For all the polls and the money, the outcome will be decided by who actually votes on Tuesday. Democrats enter the final day favoured to take the House and competitive for the Senate, and Republicans hope Election Day turnout can still defy the forecasts. More midterm coverage is available on our politics desk.