The Hormuz Chokepoint in Numbers: A Data Study of the $117 Oil Shock

Executive Summary

Brent crude for December delivery settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday, October 30, after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, capping a 13.6 percent gain for October and the highest settlement since late April. The United States benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $104.12, up 15.2 percent for the month. Analysts cited in wire reporting put the next test for Brent at $120 a barrel, with support near $110 to $112, a range that frames the trading week ahead.

The trigger was not abstract risk. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre, a vessel crossing the strait was struck by explosives carried on a small boat, and Oman said its navy evacuated 25 crew members from the Panama-flagged merchant ship RITI after fire broke out on board. On November 1, QatarEnergy reported that one of its liquefied natural gas tankers was struck by unidentified objects in the Arabian Gulf. Responsibility for either incident had not been established in the reporting reviewed for this study.

Methodology

This study rests on four evidence families, each cross-checked across at least two reporting streams. Baseline transit volumes come from the United States Energy Information Administration's world oil transit chokepoints analysis and the International Energy Agency's Strait of Hormuz factsheet. Market prices come from exchange settlements as reported by wire services and market desks. Incident records come from maritime authorities, naval statements and company statements, and diplomatic claims are attributed to the official or outlet that carried them.

Two cautions apply throughout. First, the headline transit volumes are pre-war baselines, not current wartime flows, which agencies describe as constrained and variable. Second, production figures attributed to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are figures reported by member states to the group, not independently metered output. Where a claim rests on a single official statement, this study says so rather than presenting it as settled fact.

Empirical Findings

The baseline scale explains why a narrow waterway moves world prices. The Energy Information Administration put total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz at about 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, including roughly 15 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensate. The International Energy Agency's full-year 2025 figure is about 20 million barrels a day of crude and products combined, roughly a quarter of seaborne oil trade and about a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.

Asia carries the largest exposure. About 80 percent of the oil crossing the strait heads to Asian markets, and China and India received 44 percent of its crude in 2025. The gas picture is tighter still: about 112 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas passed through the strait in 2025, roughly a fifth of global trade, with about 93 percent of Qatar's exports dependent on the single route and about 90 percent of the strait's gas bound for Asia.

No alternative route replaces the strait. The International Energy Agency puts potential bypass capacity at 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day, through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah route, against a normal flow near 20 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia itself reported September output of about 8.37 million barrels a day to the group, about 2.1 million barrels below its 10.5 million barrel target, according to the group's October monthly report as carried in market coverage.

The price shock has already fed into the wider inflation debate. Brent's October gain of 13.6 percent and West Texas Intermediate's 15.2 percent rise arrived while the United States Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, and market commentary linked dearer energy to expectations of a tougher Federal Reserve stance at its December meeting. That linkage is the bridge to the United States growth-inflation divide examined in this desk's earlier study, where strong output sat alongside sticky prices.

Shipping risk, not just supply arithmetic, is doing the damage. The head of United States Central Command said on October 30 that American forces had cleared the strait's main transit routes of sea mines and remain present to keep them open. Iran said three tankers were halted crossing the strait, and on November 1 Tehran designated Britain's Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as terrorist organisations. Iran's foreign minister confirmed talks with Qatari mediators over reopening the strait, the diplomatic track markets watch alongside the global energy trade data.

Outlook

Three paths are visible from the November 1 data. A mediator-led reopening would unwind part of the risk premium that carried Brent from its October levels toward $118, easing the pressure on Asian importers first. Continued tanker attacks would test the $120 resistance cited by market analysts and keep war-risk costs elevated for every crossing. A hardened closure would expose the bypass gap directly, since even full use of the 3.5 to 5.5 million barrel bypass range covers less than a third of normal flow.

The indicators to watch are concrete: further United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations incident reports, the next statements from QatarEnergy and regional navies, the outcome of the producers' November 1 meeting, where the group agreed to maintain December production targets, and the next Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency flow updates. Until transit volumes recover toward their baseline, the strait will remain the single largest upside risk to world energy prices, and the Gulf escalation documented in this desk's Iran cable-threat coverage will keep setting the market's tone.