Rubio Says US-India Trade Deal Is 'Very, Very Close' as Energy Talks Advance in Mumbai

MUMBAI — The United States and India stand on the verge of finalising their long-delayed trade agreement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday during a three-day visit to India, tying Washington's decision to waive tariffs on Russian oil buyers directly to the progress of the negotiations. "We're trying to finalise a trade deal with India right now. We're very close to doing that," Rubio told reporters. "We're very, very close. I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement. I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up."

Rubio held talks in Mumbai with External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, saying the two discussed "energy security and defence cooperation while reaffirming the importance of advancing the US-India strategic partnership." The visit, his second to India this year, comes as both governments work to close out differences over tariffs, energy and market access that have strained the US-India strategic partnership since the tariff confrontation began last year.

Oil Sits at the Centre of the Bargain

India is one of the world's largest importers of Russian crude, and its purchases became a central friction point after Washington passed legislation in September allowing tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries buying Russian oil and gas. President Donald Trump waived those measures last week, and Rubio made the linkage explicit: the near-complete trade deal was one of the factors the president weighed when issuing national security waivers. The energy arithmetic behind the deal, from crude grades to refinery capacity, runs through global energy markets already distorted by war in the Gulf and sanctions on Moscow.

Rubio defended New Delhi's position in unusually direct terms. "What India has expressed repeatedly is their desire to diversify their energy portfolio, which is a smart thing to do," he said in Mumbai. "It's not easy to do that from one day to the next, so I think they've made substantial progress in that regard, and we're happy to see that." Jaishankar, for his part, is understood to have explained the technical limits: Indian refineries are configured largely for medium sour crude of the kind supplied by Russia and Middle East producers, while American light crude and Venezuela's heavier grades require blending before they can be processed.

Venezuela Emerges as Part of the Answer

Rubio pointed to Venezuela as a growing piece of the supply puzzle, describing India as a "refining superpower" whose capacity to process heavy crude could help as more Venezuelan oil enters the market. India already holds oil concessions in Venezuela, he noted, and the American delegation planned to discuss Venezuelan production with Reliance Industries, operator of the Jamnagar complex, one of the largest refineries on earth, which Rubio will visit later in the week. "These are all positive things," he said, while conceding that sanctions-related hurdles remain and that Venezuela alone cannot close the global supply gap.

The timing is not accidental. With Middle East supplies disrupted by the Iran war and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz choking a fifth of the world's oil flow, Washington needs India's refining system inside its supply architecture rather than outside it. Rubio acknowledged the balancing act plainly: "You can't unravel the economy of other countries because of one central issue. The foreign policy of the US takes into account what's happening with the war between Russia and Ukraine, but it is not solely dominated by that."

What Remains to Be Signed

Rubio was careful to note that the State Department does not itself negotiate trade agreements, and a small number of items remain open before signature. No date has been announced, and the deal has been described as close before. But the surrounding facts have shifted in India's favour: the tariff threat is formally waived, the secretary of state is in Mumbai rather than issuing statements from Washington, and the energy conversation has moved from punishment to partnership. If the remaining items close as Rubio predicts, the announcement he hopes for would reset the economic terms between the world's largest democracy and its most important strategic partner in Asia, with oil, not ideology, having done most of the negotiating.